On 12 June, the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (registered in Lithuania) held a presentation of its new study “Social Contracts in Contemporary Belarus: Variables and Constants” at the Imaguru Business Center. Attending the presentation were experts, media representatives and leaders of political parties.
The first study of the framework that ensures the loyalty of the Belarusians to the state authorities and that is part of the unwritten “social contract” between the state and citizens was conducted by BISS in 2009. BISS Academic Director Alexei Pukulik said during the presentation of the new probe into social contracts that the paper became “the first systemic and global attempt to explain the stability of the Belarusian regime by the fact that most of the Belarusians benefit from the status quo.”
In 2013–2014, BISS decided to get back to the subject of “social contracts” in order to reconsider the theory that was proposed five years ago, and learn how the assessments and expectations of various social groups concerning the benefits offered by the state were transformed following the political and economic shocks of 2009–2011.
In order to answer those questions, the Institute held two nationwide surveys (in January 2013 and in April 2014), as well as a series of in-depth interviews. The conclusions of the study, which were presented by Alexei Pukulik, as well as BISS analysts Andrei Yeliseyeu and Alena Artsiomenka, turned out to be paradoxical in a lot of ways.
Specifically, the experts noted that the wave of crises did not undermine people’s trust in the state. The population’s compliance with the basic parameters of the “social contract” remained unchanged. Moreover, the Belarusians started appreciating the services provided by the state even more, while demanding less from the state and relying more on themselves.
The analysts formulated the main provision of the new “social contract” (the way citizens perceive the policy of the state and what they agree to accept in exchange for the benefits and costs of their consent) as follows: limitations of some freedoms is justified by the preservation of civil peace and political stability.
Further, the experts documented the phenomenon of “dependence on the groove” in Belarusian society, when the maintenance of the status quo — the existing model of the state — in the short run looks to citizens more beneficial than anything they can receive in the long run, while the costs of the change seem too high. This theory is supported by a recent survey conducted by BISS in 2014, which shows that 75% of the Belarusians believe that the country is in need of reforms, whereas only 15% of them are ready to endure the consequences of reforms.
