Minsk hosted a roundtable conference “Quo Vadis, Belarusians? Impact of Migration on the Economy and Society” on 14 March. The conference featured a presentation of the research study by BISS analyst Andrei Yeliseyeu “Human Capital: Impact of Migration on the Economy and Society of Belarus,” which was conducted under the aegis of the International Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) and selected data of a recent nationwide survey addressing some aspects of migration, which was commissioned by BISS and conducted in December 2012 and January 2013.
Andrei Yeliseyeu carried out a comparative analysis of statistical data and publications by Belarusian and foreign specialists and drew a number of conclusions. First,, official statistics overstates the balance of external migration, and the mission of the National Program of Demographic Safety for the period 2011 through 2015 to increase the surplus of external migration to 60,000 people is unfeasible. Second, permanent external migration produces a negative impact on the demographic situation, both quantitative and qualitative (as a rule, emigrants are younger people with a higher level of education compared with immigrants coming to Belarus). Third, labor migration is encouraged by the comparatively low level of wages in Belarus, excessive regulation of the labor market, as well as insignificant growth in the number of new jobs and meager unemployment benefits.
However, the findings of the nationwide survey with respect to migration, which were presented at the roundtable by BISS analyst Alena Artsiomenka, made the conclusions drawn by Andrei Yeliseyeu look a bit less pessimistic. The survey showed that migration intentions in late 2012 got back to the pre-crisis level. The citizens of Belarus with work experience abroad tend to earn more in Belarus, have more liberal views and rely on themselves in the matters of welfare and employments twice as much as those with no work experience abroad. Furthermore, most of the potential emigrants, whose main migration motivation is the possible improvement in their financial standing, are ready to stay in Belarus as long as they make at least 10 million rubles (around USD 1100) a month.
Both the administration of the country and the expert community have a lot to think about, because the problems caused by migration exchanges are truly alarming and imply significant risks. The discussion that followed the presentation of the research study and some of the findings of the nationwide survey proved the high relevance of this issue.
Specifically, researchers at the National Academy of Sciences shared their vision of migration, spoke about the challenges for Belarus that are associated with this problem and gave reasons why many, but not all temporary labour migrants have official contracts with their foreign employers formalized in Belarus via a number of licensed companies. Representatives of the Interior Ministry Citizenship and Migration Department noted that they were already working with the Russia's Federal Migration Service and other agencies in order to have a more precise number of Belarusian labor migrants to Russia.
Independent experts and specialists representing state agencies and think tanks also discussed why not all of the emigrants get registered at the consular services of Belarusian embassies in receiving countries and what motivates Belarusians to seek temporary employment abroad despite the fact that they may have a vague idea about their future foreign employer.
There are still many issues that require thorough analysis left. BISS will be addressing some of them in the near future. BISS Academic Director Alexei Pikulik, who moderated the event and the discussion that followed, reported that BISS experts would continue looking into the issue of migration.