The 'soft Belarusianization' that is currently underway in Belarus is the result of convergence of actions of three types of actors: social activists, business and the Belarusian authorities.
Key points
- The 'soft Belarusianization' that is currently underway in Belarus is the result of convergence of actions of three types of actors: social activists, business and the Belarusian authorities. The motives of each of them may be different, but they all add up to the same effect.
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict accelerated, but not generated, Belarusanization. Preconditions for this process had emerged over the previous decade, and the government began to appeal to national values in 2011-2012.
- President Lukashenka is personally interested in having the idea of independence of Belarus become the main imperative for every citizen, especially for officials. Loyalty to Belarus is a necessary condition, though not sufficient one, for loyalty to his regime.
Predictions
- It is unlikely that Belarusanization will ever become for Lukashenka an independent value, that is something more than an instrument for achieving other goals.
- There is also little probability that the ideological alliance with the nationalist movement will turn into a political coalition. One should not expect that political forces of nationalist persuasion, such as Belarusian Popular Front or Conservative Christian Party, will be admitted to government.
- Nevertheless, the process of Belarusanization will continue: Lukashenka and his entourage will support it at least for pragmatic reasons; business, civic activists and a large percentage of the Belarusian citizens will do it for pragmatic and ethical reasons.
- The above forecast can be invalidated in two instances: a) if there be a real threat of Russia's aggression, comparable to that which incurred Ukraine; b) if an accompanying process - 'soft liberalization' - go so far as to cause transformation of Belarusian authoritarianism into a form of a hybrid regime.
